At least 4,654 people were killed in violent incidents across Nigeria in 2025, while 3,141 others were abducted in 1,274 separate kidnapping cases nationwide, according to the Nigeria Violent Conflicts Database 2025 released on Wednesday by Nextier Advisory Ltd.
The report, produced in partnership with the SPRiNG Programme and titled “Nigeria Security and Conflict Outlook 2026: When Capability Meets Resolve,” paints a grim picture of a deteriorating security environment driven by banditry, terrorism, communal clashes and organised crime.
Presenting the findings in Abuja, Managing Partner of Nextier, Dr. Ndubuisi Nwokolo, identified banditry as the most lethal driver of violence during the year. Bandit attacks accounted for 599 incidents and 2,724 fatalities in 2025, compared to 256 incidents and 1,585 deaths recorded in 2024.
He noted that while the North-West recorded the highest number of attacks, the North-Central zone suffered more fatalities, reflecting what he described as a troubling escalation in brutality.
The report also documented a sharp rise in kidnapping, including mass abductions in rural communities, marking one of the highest levels recorded in recent years.
Terrorism and insurgency persisted, with 43 terror-related incidents reported. Borno State remained the epicentre of insurgent activity, accounting for 397 casualties. Farmer-herder conflicts also intensified, rising from 58 incidents and 188 deaths in 2024 to 87 incidents and 322 fatalities in 2025. Climate change pressures, ethnic tensions, political dynamics and banditry were cited as major contributing factors.
Nextier further highlighted illicit mining as a significant funding stream for criminal networks, alleging that a prominent bandit leader, Kachalla Mati, earns as much as N300 million weekly from illegal gold sales. The proliferation of small arms, porous borders and instability across the Sahel region were identified as additional enablers of violence.
Looking ahead, the report warned of a potential escalation in insecurity in 2026, citing growing alliances between terrorist groups and bandits, expansion of armed networks into new states such as Kwara and Kano, and rising political tensions ahead of the 2027 general elections. It projected that election-related violence, cult clashes, communal disputes and gunmen attacks would remain geographically concentrated but increasingly deadly.
Economic hardship, youth unemployment and inflation were also flagged as aggravating factors. The report identified 14 major threat clusters underpinning instability, including banditry, terrorism, kidnapping, secessionist agitation, communal violence and illegal mining.
To address the crisis, Nextier called for improved intelligence coordination, strengthened community policing and deeper collaboration with international partners. It urged the Armed Forces and intelligence agencies to enhance operational security, while recommending that the Department of State Services and the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission intensify financial surveillance to disrupt ransom and illicit funding networks.
The report also advocated full implementation of livestock reforms, including the National Livestock Transformation Plan, alongside early warning systems and structured dialogue to curb farmer-herder clashes. It criticised what it described as largely reactive electoral security measures and recommended preventive strategies and post-election reconciliation mechanisms.
In a keynote address, Deputy Inspector-General of Police Idegwu Okuoma, represented by Commissioner of Police Edwin Ogbehagha, said the report provides “critical insights into Nigeria’s security realities,” urging authorities to bridge the gap between institutional capacity and citizens’ lived experiences.
He stressed that public safety should be assessed not only by arrests or troop deployments but by the extent to which citizens feel secure, adding that the Nigeria Police Force is expanding community policing and grassroots intelligence frameworks.
Air Commodore Ademola Adejimi, representing the Chief of Air Staff, reaffirmed the Nigerian Air Force’s commitment to sustained aerial operations aimed at stabilising affected regions. Zissimo Vergos, Deputy Head of Delegation and Head of Political, Press and Information, called for a whole-of-society response, urging traditional and religious leaders, civil society groups and the media to work collaboratively with security agencies.
“Transparency, accountability and respect for human rights are essential to achieving lasting security,” Vergos said.
The report concludes that Nigeria’s security challenges are increasingly interconnected and require coordinated, proactive responses to stem the tide of violence and restore stability nationwide.
