Energy policy experts have called for a more evidence-based approach to Nigeria’s energy transition, cautioning that climate ambitions must be carefully aligned with economic growth, job security and the country’s persistent electricity access challenges.
The appeal was made at the Stakeholders Research Workshop on Supporting Just Transition in Nigeria, held Tuesday in Abuja and organised by the Ministry of Environment in collaboration with the Society for Planet and Prosperity (SPP).
At the forum, researchers presented findings on the economic, environmental and political implications of alternative energy transition pathways, stressing that empirical modelling should guide policy formulation.
President of SPP, Professor Chukwumerije Okereke, said Nigeria’s commitments under its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Energy Transition Plan (ETP) are ambitious but require stronger technical validation before full-scale implementation.
He noted that projections such as achieving up to 85 per cent electric vehicle adoption by 2060 and generating approximately 150 gigawatts of solar power may prove difficult under current infrastructure and financing constraints.
“Policy targets are not enough on their own. What matters is how these targets will be achieved and what the economic and social consequences will be,” Okereke said.
According to him, the study evaluates multiple transition scenarios, including a gas-centred development pathway, a renewable-focused expansion strategy and a hybrid model combining natural gas and renewable energy technologies.
He argued that a balanced pathway may be more realistic, enabling Nigeria to gradually cut emissions while leveraging its substantial natural gas reserves to support industrialisation and expand electricity access.
Researchers underscored the need to confront energy poverty, noting that millions of households lack reliable power supply. They identified distributed renewable systems, particularly solar mini-grids, as critical tools for extending electricity to rural and underserved communities.
Energy economists involved in the study explained that the analysis integrates energy systems modelling with macroeconomic projections to assess the potential impacts of policy choices on GDP growth, employment and carbon emissions.
Senior Research Fellow at ODI Global, Dr. Timothy Kelsall, said the research does not attempt to forecast the future but rather evaluates the potential consequences of alternative policy decisions.
“We are not predicting the future. We are showing policymakers what could happen under different scenarios so they can make informed decisions,” Kelsall said.
He added that each of the three major pathways — gas-focused, renewable-dominated and hybrid development — would generate distinct economic and political outcomes across sectors.
Participants also highlighted the importance of factoring in Nigeria’s political economy realities, warning that abrupt reforms could create economic shocks, particularly in regions and industries heavily reliant on fossil fuel revenues.
They recommended a gradual transition supported by targeted investment incentives, industrial policy measures and workforce reskilling programmes to mitigate adverse impacts.
The study further examined the implications of fuel subsidy reforms, cautioning that subsidy removal alone would not automatically yield development gains without a clear reinvestment framework. Stakeholders suggested that savings could be channelled into renewable infrastructure, social protection schemes and industrial diversification initiatives.
While Nigeria remains dependent on oil and gas exports for foreign exchange earnings, analysts emphasised that economic diversification is essential for long-term stability. They maintained that natural gas could serve as a transitional fuel for power generation and industrial expansion as renewable capacity scales up.
The experts called for stronger collaboration among government institutions, private sector investors and civil society groups to ensure coherent and effective implementation of transition policies.
As debate over Nigeria’s climate and energy future intensifies, participants agreed that the country must adopt a pragmatic strategy that balances environmental sustainability with economic development and expanded access to reliable electricity.
