The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has urged the Federal and state governments, relevant agencies, businesses and the public to strengthen climate preparedness amid projections of an intensifying El Niño phenomenon that could influence global weather patterns and pose risks to Nigeria.
The agency warned that the developing climate event could contribute to extreme heat, irregular rainfall, dry spells and other weather-related challenges, with potential consequences for agriculture, water resources, public health, energy generation and transportation.
In a climate advisory issued in Abuja, the Director of Weather Forecasting Services, Prof. Vincent Weli, said projections by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicated the possibility of a strong-to-very-strong El Niño event extending into early 2027.
According to the advisory, the WMO’s October 2026 climate update projected exceptionally warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, with a Niño 3.4 temperature anomaly of approximately 3.7 degrees Celsius for October to December 2026.
Weli, however, noted that although the term “Super El Niño” is widely used in public discussions, it is not a formal classification adopted by the WMO.
He stressed that the projected intensity of the phenomenon warranted increased vigilance, continuous monitoring and proactive measures to minimise potential climate-related risks.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon characterised by abnormal warming of sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It influences atmospheric circulation and can alter rainfall and temperature patterns across different regions of the world.
The advisory explained that the effects of El Niño vary geographically and depend on its interaction with other climate drivers, including Atlantic and Indian Ocean temperatures, prevailing winds and regional atmospheric conditions.
On Nigeria’s vulnerability, Weli said the country’s response must be guided by the interaction between the evolving Pacific Ocean conditions and West African monsoon dynamics.
He cautioned against drawing definitive conclusions about Nigeria’s weather from Pacific Ocean temperature projections alone, noting that regional observations, seasonal climate models and updated national forecasts were necessary to assess the likely impacts.
The agency identified extreme heat and heat stress as major areas of concern, particularly for outdoor workers, vulnerable populations and livestock. Prolonged high temperatures could also increase electricity demand and create additional public-health challenges.
It further warned that changes in atmospheric circulation could influence rainfall distribution, the frequency of dry spells and the timing of seasonal rainfall in some parts of the country.
Such changes, it said, could reduce soil moisture, place pressure on water resources and adversely affect rain-fed agriculture. However, these outcomes would require confirmation through Nigeria-specific climate assessments.
The advisory also cautioned that a strong El Niño should not be interpreted as an assurance of reduced rainfall or the absence of flooding in Nigeria.
Intense rainfall, flash floods and riverine flooding could still occur where local weather systems and catchment conditions favour heavy precipitation.
In the agricultural sector, irregular rainfall and extreme temperatures could affect planting decisions, crop development, livestock management and food production. Farmers were therefore advised to rely on updated agricultural weather forecasts rather than alter planting schedules solely on the basis of global El Niño projections.
The agency also highlighted possible implications for reservoir inflows, irrigation requirements, water availability and hydropower generation, urging relevant authorities to incorporate updated climate information into water-resource management and operational planning.
Aviation and transportation operators were similarly advised to continue relying on official meteorological forecasts and warnings to manage risks associated with high temperatures, thunderstorms, heavy rainfall and reduced visibility.
To strengthen preparedness, Weli said NiMet would continue monitoring Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies, Atlantic and Indian Ocean conditions, West African monsoon indicators and other relevant climate drivers.
The agency also pledged to translate global and regional climate projections into practical advisories for individual states, agricultural zones, river basins and vulnerable communities.
He called for stronger coordination among meteorological and hydrological agencies, emergency-management authorities, state governments and local communities to improve early-warning systems and ensure the timely communication of weather-related risks.
Farmers and agricultural institutions were encouraged to use regular updates on rainfall prospects, dry spells and heat stress to guide farm-management decisions, while public-health authorities, employers and communities were urged to promote adequate hydration, access to shade and appropriate work-rest schedules during periods of excessive heat.
The advisory further recommended sustained flood preparedness through drainage maintenance, floodplain monitoring, emergency planning and public awareness, irrespective of the prevailing El Niño phase.
Government institutions were also urged to review contingency plans for water supply, electricity generation, transport infrastructure, airports and other climate-sensitive facilities.
Weli called on the Federal and state governments to strengthen collaboration among meteorological services, hydrological agencies, disaster-management institutions, agricultural extension services, public-health authorities, research institutions and the private sector.
He emphasised the need for increased investment in weather observation networks, advanced forecasting systems, climate research and impact-based early-warning mechanisms to reduce the economic and social consequences of extreme weather.
Businesses operating in agriculture, aviation, energy, insurance, water management and transportation were advised to integrate credible climate information into their risk-management and business-continuity plans.
The agency urged Nigerians to remain calm but vigilant, warning against misinformation and the assumption that a strong El Niño would automatically result in nationwide drought, exceptional flooding or any single predetermined weather outcome.
Members of the public were advised to follow official forecasts, seasonal climate outlooks and relevant warnings issued by NiMet, while state governments and local emergency-management agencies were encouraged to tailor preparedness measures to risks identified in updated local forecasts.
Weli said the developing El Niño presented an opportunity for Nigeria to strengthen anticipatory action, climate-risk management and disaster preparedness.
He added that timely information, coordinated institutional responses and public awareness would be critical to protecting lives, livelihoods, infrastructure and economic activities as the global climate system evolves.
