Nigeria’s public finance system has become increasingly effective at tracking government expenditure but remains poorly equipped to determine whether billions of naira spent annually are translating into measurable improvements in citizens’ lives, the Athena Centre for Policy and Leadership has said.
The Centre made the submission in the latest edition of its Athena Policy Pulse, titled “Beyond Transparency: Building Results Accountability in Nigeria’s Public Finance System,” authored by Izuchukwu Anyanwu and Chinaza Igwe.
The report said the central challenge confronting Nigeria’s public finance system was no longer simply how much government spends, but whether public expenditure produces verifiable and sustained public value.
According to the Centre, Nigeria’s 2026 Federal Budget stands at ₦27.5 trillion, while about 41.6 per cent of federally retained revenue was consumed by debt servicing in 2025.
It further noted that under the 2024–2026 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), more than ₦5.9 trillion was allocated to health, ₦7.4 trillion to education, over ₦10 trillion to infrastructure, and approximately ₦5.8 trillion to defence and security.
However, the Centre said the increase in financial allocations had not consistently translated into corresponding improvements in healthcare access, learning outcomes, transport efficiency or security conditions.
“The question is no longer whether government is spending, but whether public spending produces verifiable, sustained public value,” the report stated.
The Centre attributed the weakness to institutional deficiencies rather than fiscal constraints alone, citing the continued dominance of input-based budgeting, weak links between previous performance and new appropriations, and incentives that encourage ministries, departments and agencies to demonstrate budget execution rather than measurable results.
It also identified a disconnect between financial management systems and sectoral performance data, while faulting an audit system that remains largely focused on compliance rather than determining whether public resources delivered value for money.
The Centre consequently described Nigeria as having built a “transparency architecture without building a results-accountability architecture.”
To bridge the gap, the report proposed four major institutional reforms.
It recommended the publication of a results annex alongside the annual Appropriation Bill, linking programme allocations directly to measurable outcomes.
It also called for ministries, departments and agencies to submit ex-post performance briefs before new capital projects are approved within the MTEF cycle.
The Centre further advocated the expansion of value-for-money audits, with their findings incorporated into subsequent budget preparation and appropriation decisions.
It also proposed upgrading the Government Integrated Financial Management Information System (GIFMIS) to interface with sectoral outcome-monitoring systems, transforming it from a primarily transaction-recording platform into a broader results-accountability mechanism.
According to the report, the 2027–2029 MTEF presents a critical opportunity for Nigeria to fundamentally change how public expenditure is planned, monitored and assessed.
It said embedding performance information into budgeting, appropriation and auditing would determine whether the country’s public finance system becomes a genuine instrument for delivering public value or remains largely focused on expenditure management.
The Athena Centre’s findings come amid persistent public concerns over the relationship between Nigeria’s expanding budgets and the quality of public services delivered to citizens.
The report therefore called for a fundamental shift in the way public spending is assessed—from asking “How much was spent?” to asking “What changed because the money was spent?”
It said the question must become central to Nigeria’s budgeting process, legislative oversight and public-sector auditing if government expenditure is to produce tangible and sustained benefits for citizens.
