Fitch Ratings has revised Nigeria’s economic outlook from stable to positive while affirming the country’s long-term credit rating at ‘B’, citing sustained economic reforms, declining inflation and a significant increase in foreign exchange reserves.
The Federal Ministry of Finance disclosed this in a statement issued in Abuja on Saturday, October 10, 2026, describing the international rating agency’s decision as recognition of the government’s ongoing economic reform programme.
According to the ministry, Fitch’s positive outlook reflects growing confidence that Nigeria will sustain its policy reforms, improve macroeconomic stability and strengthen its resilience to external economic shocks.
The agency attributed the improved assessment to greater flexibility in the naira, easing inflationary pressures and faster-than-expected accumulation of foreign exchange reserves.
Nigeria’s gross foreign reserves stood at $54.9 billion as of September 25, 2026, compared with $32 billion in mid-April 2024.
The ministry attributed the increase to improved formalisation of foreign exchange transactions, strong portfolio inflows, higher export earnings and remittances.
Fitch also projected a current account surplus equivalent to 6.4 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026, indicating an improvement in the country’s external position.
On economic growth, the agency forecast that Nigeria’s real GDP would expand by 4.3 per cent in 2026, up from four per cent in 2025, with growth expected to remain above four per cent in 2027 and 2028, driven largely by non-oil activities.
The rating agency further noted that crude oil production had met Nigeria’s Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) target of 1.5 million barrels per day since May 2026.
It also highlighted the expansion of domestic refining capacity, which is expected to reduce imports of refined petroleum products and ease demand for foreign exchange.
Average inflation is projected to moderate to 15.4 per cent in 2026, less than half its 2024 level, according to the ministry’s account of Fitch’s assessment.
On public finances, Fitch expects tax reforms to increase non-oil revenue relative to GDP, while general government debt is projected to average 32 per cent of GDP between 2026 and 2028, significantly below the 56 per cent median for countries rated ‘B’.
The agency also recognised the depth of Nigeria’s domestic debt market and the ongoing bank recapitalisation exercise, noting that many banks had achieved capital adequacy ratios above 20 per cent, well above regulatory minimum requirements.
The Finance Ministry said the latest assessment followed positive rating actions by other international institutions in 2026. S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s rating from ‘B-’ to ‘B’ in May, while Moody’s Ratings revised its outlook to positive in August.
Nigeria was also returned to Frontier Market status by FTSE Russell, effective September 21, 2026.
The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, said Fitch’s decision reinforced the government’s commitment to reforms introduced under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, including the removal of the fuel subsidy, unification of the foreign exchange market and implementation of tax reforms.
He said the government’s medium-term ambition was to put Nigeria on a path towards investment-grade credit ratings, adding that the reforms were intended to reduce the cost of capital, attract private investment and create jobs.
However, the ministry acknowledged that significant challenges remained, including inflation above levels recorded in peer economies, low government revenue relative to the size of the economy and the high proportion of revenue devoted to debt-servicing costs.
To address these constraints, the government reaffirmed its commitment to sustaining foreign exchange reforms, implementing the new tax laws, improving public expenditure efficiency, strengthening budget execution and ensuring transparent debt management.
Other priorities include promoting non-oil economic growth, diversifying the economy and translating macroeconomic stability into improved living standards through food security, job creation, human development and support for small businesses.
The ministry also noted Fitch’s position that sustained disinflation, continued implementation of reforms, further growth in foreign reserves and stronger non-oil revenue mobilisation would be important factors in any future improvement in Nigeria’s credit rating.
While the positive outlook signals the possibility of an upgrade if current trends continue, Nigeria’s rating remains at ‘B’, underscoring the need for sustained reforms and further improvements in the country’s economic fundamentals.
