President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has welcomed the World Bank’s October 2026 Nigeria Development Update, saying its findings provide further evidence that his administration’s economic reforms are stabilising the economy and creating opportunities for sustainable growth.
The report, titled Beyond the Federal Purse: How Higher Revenues Reshaped State Priorities, highlights improvements in economic growth, external reserves, government revenues and state-level investment, while projecting a gradual decline in poverty and inflation over the coming years.
In a statement issued by his Special Adviser on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, Tinubu noted the World Bank’s finding that Nigeria’s poverty rate had stabilised for the first time since 2019. The bank expects poverty to decline gradually as economic growth outpaces population growth.
According to the report, Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.2 per cent in the first half of 2026, compared with 3.9 per cent in the corresponding period of 2025, despite the impact of the conflict in the Middle East.
The World Bank projects average economic growth of at least 4.4 per cent between 2026 and 2028.
On inflation, the report showed that the rate declined from 27.6 per cent in January 2025 to 15.2 per cent in December 2025. However, rising global fuel prices associated with the Middle East conflict have slowed the disinflation process. Inflation is projected to ease to about 12 per cent by 2028.
Nigeria’s external position also improved, with the current account surplus rising to $12 billion, representing 7 per cent of gross domestic product, in the first half of 2026, up from $8.6 billion a year earlier.
Gross external reserves increased from $45.5 billion at the end of 2025 to $53.8 billion at the end of August 2026.
The report attributed significant improvements in government finances to reforms introduced since 2023, including the removal of the petrol subsidy, foreign exchange market unification and measures to strengthen fiscal discipline.
It stated that federation revenues increased by 69 per cent in real terms between 2023 and 2025, with state governments emerging as the largest beneficiaries.
The additional revenue enabled states to increase capital expenditure by 151 per cent in real terms during the period, with much of the spending directed towards roads and other transport infrastructure, agriculture, energy and housing.
Twenty-nine of the 33 states assessed shifted their spending towards economic infrastructure, while real social spending per person increased in all but one state.
The World Bank also reported that internally generated revenue grew in real terms in 31 of 35 states, while 21 states reduced their debt-to-GDP ratios between 2021 and 2025.
Nigeria’s overall public debt is projected to decline from 40 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 38.1 per cent in 2026.
Reacting to the findings, Tinubu said the report validated the difficult economic decisions taken by his administration.
“These findings confirm that the difficult but necessary decisions to remove the petrol subsidy, unify the foreign exchange market and strengthen fiscal discipline have raised revenues, stabilised the economy and created fiscal space for every tier of government to invest in its people,” he said.
The President, however, acknowledged that more work was required to ensure that the gains translated into improved living conditions for households, particularly through lower food prices and increased employment opportunities for young Nigerians.
He reaffirmed his administration’s commitment to inclusive growth under the Renewed Hope Agenda, promising to expand targeted cash transfers, accelerate the deployment of compressed natural gas (CNG), improve agricultural productivity and increase access to affordable healthcare and quality education.
Tinubu said the administration’s cash transfer programme had reached more than 10 million households, adding that further interventions would focus on ensuring that the benefits of economic recovery were shared more widely.
He also urged state governments to manage their increased revenues prudently and prioritise investments capable of improving living standards, healthcare delivery and educational outcomes.
The President commended the Economic Management Team, led by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, as well as state governors and other stakeholders, for their cooperation in implementing the reforms.
He assured Nigerians that his administration would sustain its reform programme under Renewed Hope Agenda 2.0, with an emphasis on accelerating economic growth and delivering shared prosperity.
